In tonight's Brownlow Medal count, the top three favourites in Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith, and Jordan Dawson will one way or another shape the night.
All three of those stars have near-certain three-vote games locked in; Daicos has four, Smith has two and Dawson has four according to Fox Sports.
But it is not those games that will define the winner, it is the matches where a coin flip will decide maximum votes or even no votes.
Here are three examples of the pivotal games you need to watch closely tonight.
MORE: Brownlow Medal: Will Daicos defy the betting favourite curse?
Round 8: Geelong defeated Collingwood
Take your mind back to a round eight classic as the Cats defeated the Magpies by three points.
More importantly, this was the only time this year where the two Brownlow favourites faced off.
Smith topped the stats sheet with 34 disposals, a goal, and most importantly, a win.
Whilst Daicos finished with 28 and a goal after a scintillating 17-disposal first half.
The AFL Brownlow Predictor currently has Patrick Dangerfield taking home maximum votes (29 disposals, one goal) with Daicos polling two and Smith one.
This game is a genuine coin flip between those three midfield superstars, and if Smith or Daicos snatch the three votes, it will be a huge win early in the count.
Round 18: Adelaide defeated Western Bulldogs
If Jordan Dawson has any chance of winning this year's Brownlow Medal, he must still poll votes in games where he doesn't top the stat sheet.
Dawson only had two games this entire season with 28 or more disposals, which does not fit the usual Brownlow Medal-winning profile.
But he is as impactful as any midfielder in the game.
In Round 18, Dawson finished with 27 disposals and two goals in an emphatic victory for the Crows.
But he trailed Marcus Bontempelli’s 37 disposals, Ed Richards’ 29-disposal, two-goal performance, and Riley Thilthorpe’s six-goal game.
Will the midfield bias steer Dawson to a three-vote match over his key forward? Or could Bontempelli and Richards ruin Dawson’s count?
Round 24: Collingwood defeated Melbourne
Collingwood fans and Daicos will be hoping that the Brownlow Medal is sewn up well before the last round of the season, but this may end up being the penultimate round.
“I think he will need all three votes (from this game) to win the Brownlow,” Leigh Montagna said pregame on Triple M.
Daicos finished with 27 disposals in a tight Magpies win.
But he will face an uphill battle to poll any votes, with Clayton Oliver (30 disposals), Christian Petracca (28 disposals, one goal), Max Gawn (23 disposals), and Jordan De Goey (26 disposals, one goal) all projected to poll.
It may all come down to the last round of the year, and Daicos will need some luck on his side to poll in this match.