With just two rounds remaining in the 2025 NRL season, the race for the final top-eight spot has reached a fever pitch.
Four teams remain mathematically alive, with the Roosters, Dolphins, Sea Eagles and Tigers all still in contention.
Ironically, the Sea Eagles are the only team entering Round 26 with momentum, despite being all but finished just three days ago.
Manly had lost four games in a row before emphatically defeating the Dolphins 58-30 in Daly Cherry-Evans' 350th game.
Elsewhere in Round 25, the Roosters were trounced by the Eels, while the Tigers fell short in a thriller against the Cowboys.
The Roosters retain the ladder advantage, sitting eighth with a solid 72-point positive differential.
The Sporting News breaks down the odds that each of these sides have at making the top-eight, assuming that each remaining game's result has an even chance.
MORE: Which NRL teams cannot make the finals in 2025? Full list of eliminated clubs
Which team has the best odds of making the top-eight?
Sydney Roosters - 65% chance
The Roosters are currently in the box seat with 28 premiership points. To this point, their results have been completely split down the middle with eleven-wins and eleven-losses.
In what many considered as a 'rebuilding' year for the club, Trent Robinson has the chance to extend his record of consecutive finals appearances to nine.
Their remaining matches include a road-trip to Melbourne to take on the Storm, and a rivalry game with the Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium.
A loss in either round could expose them to the field, making the concussion sustained by Sam Walker even more concerning.
Dolphins - 28% chance
The Dolphins have been the ultimate rocks or diamonds side of the 2025 season.
They've won ten games, scoring 50-points in three of them. However, amongst their 12 losses, they've conceded over 30-points per game on average.
Their 81-point positive differential puts them in a strong position in potential tie-breaker scenarios.
Kristian Woolf's men host the Titans and then the Raiders in their final two matches, likely needing to win both to make the eight. They'll also need the Roosters to stumble along the way.
Manly Sea Eagles - 6% chance
The Sea Eagles, like the Dolphins, currently sit on 26 premiership points. However, their point-differential is a staggering 77-points less than the Redcliffe-based club.
Manly's 2025 season has unfolded like a reality television drama, with several twists threatening to derail their finals hopes.
It began with Daly Cherry-Evans announcing his end-of-season departure, followed by Tom Trbojevic's positional switch and Jake Trbojevic's concussion issues.
Concerns over coach Anthony Seibold's future have added further uncertainty, compounding an already turbulent campaign for the Northern Beaches club.
Even with wins in their final two games against the Dragons at Kogarah, and the Warriors at home, they would still need the Roosters and Dolphins to continue to lose.
Wests Tigers - <1% chance
The Tigers sit on 24 premiership points with an insurmountable negative 113-point differential.
They can theoretically reach 28 points, but all signs point to the Tigers having mad-Monday on the same day as the other eight clubs that won't feature in finals football.
Even winning their final games against the Raiders in Canberra, and the Titans on the Gold Coast, their huge points deficit make their top-eight chances negligible.
Whilst their season has been a struggle, Tigers fans should take some solace in the fact that they've finally avoided the wooden spoon and look to be on the rise under Benji Marshall.