Much of the 2025 NBA Playoffs has been unpredictable, and the Celtics vs. Knicks second-round series might as well be Exhibit A. Boston lost Games 1 and 2 at home after blowing 20-point second-half leads, then proceeded to blow the doors off Madison Square Garden in Game 3. So, what happens tonight in Game 3?
The Sporting News will take a look at the latest NBA odds for this all-important matchup, and also hand-select the best bets for the evening. We'll serve up our final score prediction, as well as the optimal spread, over/under and player prop wagers.
Let's get right to our betting preview for Game 4 of the Celtics vs. Knicks series, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Celtics vs. Knicks Game 4: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Celtics -6.5 (-105) | Knicks +6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Celtics -240 | Knicks +200
- Over/under: O 208.5 (-110) | U 208.5 (-110)
The Celtics open Monday as a 6.5-point road favorite despite trailing 2-1 in the series. Boston's -240 moneyline translates roughly to a 71-percent implied win probability. The 208.5 seems like a low over/under in this era, until you realize that Games 2 and 3 totaled 181 and 208 points, respectively.
The Celtics have now gone 35-9 on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season. Boston has also won all three games vs. the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in that span, and Joe Mazzulla's squad is 9-3 against New York since the 2023-24 season.
Celtics vs. Knicks Game 4 best bets and final score prediction
Just when bettors and fans start thinking they have a handle on what's happening in a series, things seem to tilt dramatically the other way. For that exact reason, we find it difficult to fully launch back onto the Boston bandwagon, which nearly 70 percent of public bettors have been doing as of Monday morning.
The Knicks are getting 6.5 points at home, where they went 27-14 this season! The Celtics' one win in this series is a game in which they shot 50 percent from three-point land and 88.2 percent from the free-throw line! There's still plenty of reasons to think New York can at least make this game a closer battle than the 115-93 onslaught that we saw in Game 3.
The biggest reason to not trust Boston to cruise to an easy victory? The interior. Despite the lopsided final score on Saturday, New York outscored the Celtics 48-34 in the paint and won the offensive rebounding battle 17-12. And with Kristaps Porzingis still battling the lingering effects of a viral illness from March, the Green have seem to have entirely too much riding on Al Horford and Luke Kornet.
The three-point disparity also can't possibly be as massive in Game 4 as we saw on Saturday. Boston went 20-of-40, while New York went just 5-of-25. That's a 30-percent difference in efficiency, and a 45-point difference in total scoring outside the arc. That's simply incredible, both literally and figuratively — Boston is not a 50-percent team from distance, nor is New York a 20-percent team.
In fact, since the start of the 2024-25 season, the Celtics have the same exact three-point shooting percentage on the road as the Knicks at home (36.7%). That stat alone tells you that each team is due for some game-to-game regression — negative regression for Boston, positive regression for New York.
It's still very possible the Celtics win this game and tie the series up headed back to Boston — they're still the defending champs, after all, and they have a better overall roster. But if you can get all these points for a home team playing with house money, why would you risk swimming with the crowd of -6.5 chalk bettors and potentially running into a shark?
We told you ahead of Game 1 to bet New York +9.5 and the UNDER, advice that paid off handsomely. We'll take a similar approach for Game 4, riding with the 'dogs when everyone seems to think the favorites will be doing more bulldozing. It's still probably Boston on the moneyline, but the playing field is a lot more level than the odds — and the Game 3 final score — might suggest.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 106, Knicks 101 — Boston wins but New York covers (+6.5), while the score goes just UNDER the projected total of 208.5.
Want to run an alt-bet parlay to reduce your betting stress going into Game 4? Get some extra insurance on the Knicks and the UNDER by buying some points on both and combining them into a mini-parlay. Turn the Knicks +6.5 into +10.5 and then bang out an alt-UNDER of 214.5 (rather than 208.5). That way, you're entering this MSG bout with +112 odds on two very attainable numbers.
Celtics vs. Knicks Game 4 top player prop bets
Payton Pritchard, G, Celtics: 12+ points (+125)
Ask any Celtics fan or insider who served as the x-factor of Game 3, and the majority will say Pritchard. The feisty 27-year-old and most recent Sixth Man of the Year provided a spark that no Knickerbocker guard could extinguish. Now we're getting plus odds on pp scoring 12, something he has done in two of the past three games.
After Pritchard poured in 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting and 5-of-10 from three-point land over 34 minutes on Saturday, it would be downright foolish for Mazzulla to give this guy any less than 27 minutes tonight. Pritch don't play — he shot 40 percent from deep on the road this season. He might have 12 by the end of the third frame.
Other player props/prop parlays worth consideration:
- *Perimeter D 1/1s*
Derrick White, G, Celtics: 1+ blocks + Mikal Bridges, G/F, Knicks: 1+ steals (-135) - *PRA White-out*
Derrick White, G, Celtics: 26+ points + rebounds + assists (-130)