A year ago, Notre Dame was riding the high of a 14–2 season capped by a national championship appearance against Ohio State. This fall, Pro Football Focus projects only seven wins for the Irish.
The sudden dip reflects more than just outside skepticism — it speaks to the reality of a roster built around one of college football’s top defenses, a star at running back, and a glaring question mark at the sports’ most impactful position: quarterback.
Quarterback Uncertainty
The Irish entered fall camp with no clear answer under center. The battle between highly touted freshman CJ Carr and redshirt sophomore Kenny Minchey carried through to the final days of August.
Both showed flashes, both made mistakes, and neither had logged meaningful college experience. For a program facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules, that inexperience carried as much weight as any stat line from last year’s playoff run.
Carr Named the Starter
Notre Dame ultimately turned to Carr, a polished recruit with the pedigree to develop into a long-term solution. His accuracy and command in camp proved enough to win the job, though coaches have made it clear Minchey’s mobility and poise could still earn him snaps. Growing pains are expected, and with early road trips to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish cannot afford prolonged struggles.
Defense and Love Remain the Backbone
The good news for Notre Dame is that the pieces around the quarterback remain elite. The Irish defense ranked fourth nationally in pass defense last season, holding opponents to 169.4 yards per game through the air, and tied for fifth in scoring defense at 15.5 points allowed per game.
In the backfield, All-American Jeremiyah Love leads a rushing attack that averaged nearly 200 yards per contest at 5.7 yards per carry. That combination provides a foundation strong enough to carry Notre Dame through low-scoring, grind-it-out contests.
A Season on the Edge
With one of the nation’s toughest schedules—ranked as high as sixth by Phil Steele—Notre Dame’s ability to stay in the playoff hunt hinges on Carr’s ability to avoid costly mistakes.
If the freshman quarterback can be steady, the defense and ground game provide enough support to keep the Irish in contention. If the growing pains mount, PFF’s seven-win projection could look more accurate than Irish fans would care to admit.