Carlo Ancelotti will make his long-awaited debut in charge of Brazil as the Selecao travel to Guayacil for a meeting with Ecuador on Thursday.
Don Carlo has been reportedly coveted by Brazil for years, and after the federation finally swooped in and landed the deal, the Italian has slid straight into the role following the conclusion of Real Madrid's season less than two weeks ago.
He hopes to carry Brazil out of the World Cup qualifying doldrums, where they've floundered of late, battling inconsistency and disappointment throughout. They sit fourth in the standings with four matches to go, likely safe but still embarrassed by the usually dominant nation's current position.
Ancelotti's first challenge is a tough one, as Ecuador deservingly sit second in the standings and boast a talented squad with quality at the back. Since agonizingly falling to eventual champions Argentina on penalties in the Copa America quarterfinals last summer, Ecuador have lost just once — to this very Brazil side, one of the Selecao's few truly quality results of the past few years.
Here's our betting tips and predictions for this clash, including our best bet builder props.
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Ecuador vs. Brazil prediction, tips and latest odds
- Win/Draw Market: Draw (3.18, Parimatch)
- Score Prediction: Ecuador 1-1 Brazil
Brazil may have Carlo Ancelotti who will significantly raise their floor, but it will take some time for him to become stuck in to the position and have a significant influence on the team's on-field results.
As it stands, this Brazil squad still has significant holes, and those roster flaws will be exposed against an Ecuador side that has proven its current might. La Tri are second in the World cup qualifying standings for a reason, as they spot a number of players in their prime enjoying good form at big European clubs.
Moises Caicedo flew massively under-the-radar at Chelsea this season, maybe the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League of the last campaign, while both Piero Hincapie and William Pacho are defensive stars. Pacho in particular can deal with Brazil's attacking pace, as he excels at defending in space.
The Ecuador attack is bereft of creativity, and they are missing talisman Enner Valencia due to injury as well, so they will be hard-pressed to find a goal themselves, but Brazil have shown a weakness defending set pieces. Ecuador have not beaten Brazil in over 20 years, but they have drawn two of their last three meetings, and should have pulled one off in the reverse fixture in September as well.
| Odds* (Parimatch) | |
| Ecuador win | 3.73 |
| Draw | 3.18 |
| Brazil win | 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | Y: 2.01 N: 1.76 |
| Goals scored | 0-1: 2.78 2-3: 1.84 4+: 4.45 |
| Brazil -1 goals | 3.34 |
| Ecuador +1 goals | 1.33 |
* All odds correct at time of publish but subject to change
Ecuador vs. Brazil match facts
- Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. local (12 a.m., June 6th BST)
- Location: Estadio Monumental (Guayaquil, Ecuador)
- Last meeting: Brazil 1-0 Ecuador (Sep. 6, 2024 | CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying)
MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of Ecuador vs. Brazil
Ecuador vs. Brazil best bet builder bets
- Pick: Moises Caicedo to be shown a yellow card
- Odds: 3.75 (Dafabet)
Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo is the anchor of Ecuador's midfield, and his run of spectacular form this season is a big reason why La Tri are in their strong qualifying position. The 23-year-old has blossomed into a defensive superstar who is press resistant on the ball, a massive boost to Ecuador's ability to keep opponents at bay while they search for rare opportunities in front of goal.
In the Premier League with Chelsea this season, Caicedo averaged exactly three tackles per game, ranking him third in total tackles amongst midfielders behind only two players on teams who enjoyed much less of the ball than his Chelsea squad.
Caicedo has reached that tackle mark in two of his last four games, and against a Brazil side who should have plenty of the ball, he'll have lots of opportunities to get stuck in, but we think he may end up crossing the line, so taking him to get a yellow card in the 90 minutes seems a sensible option.
- Pick: Matheus Cunha to assist
- Odds: 4.45 (Dafabet)
While Vinicius Jr. continues to struggle with international form and the rest of the Brazil attacking squad flawed, Matheus Cunha should be an enormously important piece of Carlo Ancelotti's first starting XI, unless he succumbs to the inadvisable allure of players with more star power.
The Wolves playmaker was massive for a side that battled relegation for half the season, carrying them almost single-handedly to Premier League safety. He ranked in the 97th percentile for shot-creating actions amongst European forwards last season, and even sits in the 80th percentile when compared to attacking midfielders and wingers who are saddled with loads of chance creation responsibilities in the modern game.
Like at Barcelona, Raphinha needs another forward on the side to carry the load to be prolific, while the likes of Gabriel Martinelli, Vinicius Jr, and even a suddenly hot Antony don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of international opponents on current form. Expect Cunha to be saddled with a significant amount of responsibilities in the attacking third, if Ancelotti is as smart as he gets credit for.
