India and Pakistan will clash for the third time in the Asia Cup 2025 on Sunday, September 22, at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.
Both the rival nations clashed twice in the Asia Cup this year, with India winning both matches comprehensively. The Men in Blue will now aim to make it three wins in a row and successfully defend their crown
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Pakistan, on the other hand, will seek revenge and hope to win the Asia Cup title for the third time in their history.
In this article, The Sporting News tracks the match and provides each team's live win probabilities.
IND vs PAK Asia Cup 2025 Final: Live win probability
12:00 am: Tilak Varma's match-winning 69*(43) takes India home; Rinku Singh scores a boundary off his first match of the tournament and India clinches the Asia Cup 2025 by 5 wickets and 2 balls remaining.
11:55 pm: Dube hits a four and gets dismissed. India need 10 off the final over.
11:44 pm: Tilak Varma's fifty and a cameo from Shivam Dube has brought India to the driver's seat as they need 17 from the final two overs.
11:15 pm: Abrar gets a breakthrough as Samson slices one straight to Farhan. India needs 70 off 46.
11:00 pm: Tilak Varma and Sanju Samson stabilize India's innings after a poor start. India 58/3 and require 89 off the final 10 overs.
10:20 pm: Pakistan scalp another early wicket. Captain Suryakumar Yadav's poor run of form continues as Salman Agha takes a stunning catch, while diving forward.
10:32 pm: India in trouble. Number 3 falls down, as Haris Rauf catches Shubman Gill off Faheem Ashraf. India 20/3 after 4 overs.
10:10 pm: India loses the in-form Abhishek Sharma early in the powerplay. India 7/1 (1.1 overs).
9:41 pm: Pakistan's innings ends in a dramatic collapse- all out for 146 with five balls to spare. They lost their last 9 wickets for just 33 runs. India need 147 to lift the trophy!
9:33 pm: More misery for Pakistan! A dramatic collapse as they lose three wickets in no time. They’re at 141/9 after 17.5 overs. India all over them!
IND vs PAK Asia Cup 2025 Final: Odds
According to Dafabet, India are the favourites to win this match.
| Team | Odds |
| India | 1.13 |
| Pakistan | 6.00 |
9:21 pm: Wickets continue to tumble for Pakistan! Hussain Talat and skipper Salman Agha depart in quick succession. From a strong position, Pakistan now reeling at 133/6 after 16.1 overs. India firmly on top!
9:11 pm: Big breakthrough for India! Fakhar Zaman departs after a well-made 46, caught by Kuldeep Yadav off Varun Chakaravarthy. A mini-collapse for Pakistan, now 126/4 after 14.4 overs.
9:07 pm: Back-to-back breakthroughs for India! Kuldeep Yadav removed Saim Ayub, followed by Axar Patel dismissing Mohammad Haris for a duck. Pakistan now 114/3 after 13.3 overs.
8:48 pm: Pakistan have made a strong start as they reached on 87/1 after 10 overs. Farhan’s aggressive knock set the tone before falling to Varun Chakaravarthy, giving India a crucial breakthrough.
8:30 pm: Pakistani openers are off to a cautious start as they are 45/0 after the powerplay.
8:01 pm: Shivam Dube begin proceedings with the ball for India.
7:32 pm: Suryakumar Yadav wins the toss and decides to field first. SKY confirms that Hardik Pandya misses out due to injury.
6:45 pm: India's win probability is at 55%. Pakistan, on the other hand, have a 45% chance of winning.
IND vs PAK: Live win probability
| Team | Win Probability |
| India | 100% |
| Pakistan | 0% |
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