Later on today the best male footballer on the planet for 2025 will be revealed at a star-studded Ballon d'Or ceremony in Paris.
Held at the Theatre du Chatelet, the Ballon d'Or recognises the elite footballer of the past 12 months. For the 2025 edition, that means the period beginning at the start of league campaigns in August 2024 and running through to the end of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.
30 players were nominated for the award in August. Let's look at the latest odds of the leading contenders to decipher their chances of winning the big prize.
Ballon d'Or 2025 winner betting odds
Only five players are given a greater than 2% chance of winning the Ballon d'Or tonight - all of them with a best price on Dafabet.
Player | Odds | Implied Chance |
Ousmane Dembele | 1.25 | 80% |
Raphinha | 4.00 | 25% |
Lamine Yamal | 5.00 | 20% |
Vitinha | 21.00 | 4.76% |
Mohamed Salah | 26.00 | 3.85% |
Kylian Mbappe | 67.00 | 1.49% |
*Odds correct at time of publish and subject to change.
Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or 2025?
The bookmakers’ favourite to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or tonight is PSG forward Ousmane Dembele, who is given an 80% chance of winning even at best odds of 1.25. His nearest challenger in the betting market is Barcelona’s Raphina at 4.00. The current teenage sensation in the world football Lamine Yamal, is at 5.00.
Who won the Ballon d'Or 2024?
Rodri overcame stern competition from Real Madrid stars Jude Bellingham and the much-fancied Vinicius Jr. to claim the top prize in 2024 after an exceptional season for Manchester City and Spain. It was a double success for Spain as Barcelona playmaker Aitana Bonmati made it back-to-back successes in the Ballon d'Or Feminin.
When will the 2025 Ballon d'Or winner be announced?
The 2025 Ballon d'Or will be awarded at a ceremony tonight at the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, France. A start time for the ceremony has yet to be confirmed, but last year it started at 7:45pm in the UK, streamed on YouTube.
How is the Ballon d'Or winner decided?
As of 2022, the award creators France Football decided to restrict the field of nations that had a media member with a ballot. They reduced that list from more than 180 to the top 100 countries from the FIFA men's world ranking (for the men's award), and the top 50 countries from the women's world ranking (for the women's award).
The media members receive a list of the finalists (30 nominees) to choose from and make their selections from that select group of candidates.
Was Lionel Messi nominated for the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Lionel Messi was not nominated for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. Thus, he is not eligible to win the award this year, as the winner tonight will be picked from the list of 30 nominees. Messi holds the record as the player with the most Ballon d'Or awards of all-time with eight. Behind him is the Argentine's long-time rival Cristiano Ronaldo with five.
Was Cristiano Ronaldo nominated for the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Like Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo was not nominated for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. The 40-year-old missed out despite his continued prolific goalscoring form with Al Nassr since joining in 2023 - he has 101 goals across 115 matches in all competitions for the Saudi side.