With three matches left in the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifying cycle, Wales find themselves in a promising yet complicated position in a highly competitive Group J.
Craig Bellamy's side sit third in the standings after defeat against Belgium to conclude the October international break, residing outside the all-important top two spots, but they still have the ability to make a late comeback.
After qualifying for the 2022 tournament, their first World Cup appearance since 1958, Wales fans are hungry for more and can taste a spot in the expanded 2026 field, which will feature 48 teams for the first time in the competition's history.
The Sporting News brings you all you need to know about what Wales must do to reach the tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico next summer.
MORE: All the teams to have qualified so far for the 2026 World Cup
What do Wales need to qualify for World Cup 2026?
The first-place finisher in each group earns automatic passage to the World Cup, while the second-place team secures a place in the UEFA playoffs, where 16 teams will contest mini-knockout brackets for four more World Cup places.
To qualify automatically for next year's final tournament, Wales need to overtake the two teams above them in the standings and finish top of the group.
It's a very tall task, especially after defeat to Belgium, but they have a match against North Macedonia remaining on the schedule, which leaves them room to make up ground.
The boon for Wales is that North Macedonia have played one more game than both Wales below them and Belgium above. Craig Bellamy's side also have a remaining match against group Liechtenstein, who have yet to win a single game and sport a goal difference of minus 23. That could be an opportunity to run up the score and gain a goal-difference advantage, although Belgium have a fixture remaining against Liechtenstein as well.
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Wales remaining World Cup qualifying matches
Saturday, November 15:
Liechtenstein vs. Wales
Kazakhstan vs. Belgium
Tuesday, November 18:
Belgium vs. Liechtenstein
Wales vs. North Macedonia
Group J standings
| Pos. | Nation | GP | Pts | W-D-L | GD |
| 1. | Belgium | 6 | 14 | 4-2-0 | +15 |
| 2. | North Macedonia | 7 | 13 | 3-4-0 | +9 |
| 3. | Wales | 6 | 10 | 3-1-2 | +3 |
| 4. | Kazakhstan | 7 | 7 | 2-1-4 | -4 |
| 5. | Liechtenstein | 6 | 0 | 0-0-6 | -23 |
MORE: Updated group tables for UEFA's World Cup qualifying section
Wales World Cup 2026 qualifying permutations
The key for Wales is that they must at least draw Liechtenstein, and they must beat North Macedonia to have a chance at qualifying for the World Cup.
They are essentially out of the running for the top spot in the group, unless Belgium somehow fail to secure at least two points from their final two matches against Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein, which is highly unlikely.
Here are the permutations for Wales in their final three World Cup qualifying matches:
- If Wales draw or defeat Liechtenstein and defeat North Macedonia...
- If Belgium pick up one point or fewer vs. Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein, Wales would win Group J.
- If Belgium pick up at least two points vs. Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein, Wales would finish second in Group J.
- If Wales defeat Liechtenstein by at least six goals, AND draw vs. North Macedonia, Wales would finish second in Group J.
If Wales are beaten in either of their final two games, they are out of contention for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.