With just nine points separating their two drivers, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, at the top of the drivers’ championship, it seems more apparent that this season’s constructors’ championship will be clinched much earlier than the drivers’ title.
But at what point might we expect McLaren to officially and successfully defend their crown?
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The current championship order
- McLaren (559)
- Ferrari (260)
- Mercedes (236)
- Red Bull (194)
McLaren interestingly have scored more than double the number of points of any other team, leading the standings by a mammoth 299 points, over second-placed Ferrari.
McLaren's two drivers: Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris
This was the exact order of the two teams, in 2024, but the Italian team would pressurise McLaren until the season finale. The British team eventually won the constructors’ championship, by a mere 14 points.
But having won 11 of the first 14 races, and earning 26 podiums during that time, McLaren are dominating to a serene extent in 2025.
They are currently averaging around 39.93 points per race. Compare that with Ferrari’s approximate total of 18.57 points per round and Mercedes’ and Red Bull’s weaker tally, that would earn the team over 950 points across 24 race weekends, a record in itself.
Of course, each of the figures are slightly inflated because they include the points earned from sprint races, of which there are only six across the season. But this current points trajectory would see the Papaya team winning the championship by over 500 points, which would be another record.
The title-winning permutations
With their current 299-point lead, if that gap were to be maintained, the team could win the championship at the US Grand Prix. That weekend will be a high-scoring event, because of the inclusion of the sprint race, which means that a team can score a maximum of 58 points.
After that race, they would need to be 245 points clear of second place. But in the unlikely event where there is a threat that a team could match McLaren’s points tally, the FIA’s countback system will reward the team with the most victories.
The only team with more than one victory, in 2025, is Red Bull. They have scored two wins, courtesy of Max Verstappen’s brilliance.
That means that they can win a maximum of 12 races in 2025, one more than McLaren’s current tally. So, if McLaren win at least one more race in 2025, any countback assessment would favour them.
However, with the Woking outfit's current points average, versus nearest challengers Ferrari, they would be set to win the championship at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. After that event, they would need a lead of 346 points (as long as they had won another race by that point) and their current trajectory gives them a lead of 354 points at that point.
One of the great things about Formula 1 is that you cannot predict all of the intricacies and eventualities that may befall anyone, or any team. However, McLaren will most probably (if their current form can be sustained) win the constructors’ championship in between three and five races time.
What will grip fans will be the destiny of the season-long battle, between their two drivers.