If you haven’t been to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.
A wise horse player once told me that. In fact, he repeats it every time we’re in the situation we’re in this weekend.
More: Picks | Horse-by-horse break down | Odds, post positions
As it relates to Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, the adage means this: If you didn’t bet American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby and you didn’t bet him in the Preakness, now is probably not the time to jump on board.
The Triple Crown hopeful’s morning-line odds are 3-to-5, and at that price, we’ll look elsewhere for our wager. Sure, it would be nice to see American Pharoah become the first horse to accomplish the Triple Crown feat since 1978, but it would be even nicer to cash a fat ticket on Saturday.
Recent history tells us the Belmont is not kind to favorites and is a race for longshots. The last favorite to win it was Afleet Alex in 2005. Six of the last seven winners have gone off at odds of 9-to-1 or greater, and since 1999, we’ve seen bombs such as Lemon Drop Kid (29-to-1), Sarava (70-to-1), Birdstone (36-to-1) and Da Tara (38-to-1) come out on top.
Here’s a list of the Belmont winners since ’78 and their odds, courtesy about.com.
| Year | Winner | PP | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Tonalist* | 11 | J. Rosario | C. Clement | 9.2 |
| 2013 | Palace Malice | 12 | M. Smith | T. Pletcher | 13.8 |
| 2012 | Union Rags | 3 | J. Velazquez | M. Matz | 2.75 |
| 2011 | Ruler on Ice | 3 | J. Valdivia Jr. | K. Breen | 24.75 |
| 2010 | Drosselmeyer | 7 | M. Smith | W. Mott | 13 |
| 2009 | Summer Bird | 4 | K. Desormeaux | T. Ice | 11.9 |
| 2008 | Da' Tara* | 7 | A. Garcia | N. Zito | 38.5 |
| 2007 | Rags to Riches | 7 | J. Velazquez | T. Pletcher | 4.3 |
| 2006 | Jazil | 8 | F. Jara | K. McLaughlin | 6.2 |
| 2005 | Afleet Alex | 9 | J. Rose | T. Ritchey | **1.15 |
| 2004 | Birdstone* | 4 | E. Prado | N. Zito | 36 |
| 2003 | Empire Maker* | 1 | J. Bailey | R. Frankel | 2 |
| 2002 | Sarava* | 11 | E. Prado | K. McPeek | 70.25 |
| 2001 | Point Given | 9 | G. Stevens | B. Baffert | **1.35 |
| 2000 | Commendable | 3 | P. Day | D.W. Lukas | 18.8 |
| 1999 | Lemon Drop Kid* | 6 | J. Santos | S. Schulhofer | 29.75 |
| 1998 | Victory Gallop* | 9 | G. Stevens | W. E. Walden | 4.5 |
| 1997 | Touch Gold* | 1 | C. McCarron | D. Hofmans | 2.65 |
| 1996 | Editor's Note | 7 | R. Douglas | D.W. Lukas | 5.8 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | 10 | G. Stevens | D.W. Lukas | **1.50 |
| 1994 | Tabasco Cat | 2 | P. Day | D.W. Lukas | 3.4 |
| 1993 | Colonial Affair | 4 | J. Krone | F.S. Schulhofer | 13.9 |
| 1992 | A.P. Indy | 1 | E. Delahoussaye | N. Drysdale | **1.10 |
| 1991 | Hansel | 5 | J.D. Bailey | F. Brothers | 4.1 |
| 1990 | Go And Go | 2 | M.J. Kinane | W. Dermot | 7.5 |
| 1989 | Easy Goer* | 7 | P. Day | C. McGaughey III | 1.6 |
| 1988 | Risen Star | 5 | E. Delahoussaye | L. Roussel III | **2.10 |
| 1987 | Bet Twice* | 4 | C. Perret | W.A. Croll Jr. | 8 |
| 1986 | Danzig Connection | 8 | C.J. McCarron | W. Stephens | 8 |
| 1985 | Creme Fraiche | 8 | E. Maple | W. Stephens | 2.5 |
| 1984 | Swale | 6 | L. Pincay Jr. | W. Stephens | **1.50 |
| 1983 | Caveat | 7 | L. Pincay Jr. | W. Stephens | 2.6 |
| 1982 | Conquistador Cielo | 11 | L. Pincay Jr. | W. Stephens | 4.1 |
| 1981 | Summing* | 5 | G. Martens | L. Barrera | 7.9 |
| 1980 | Temperence Hill | 3 | E. Maple | J. Cantey | 53.4 |
| 1979 | Coastal* | 7 | R. Hernandez | D. Whiteley | 4.4 |
* race featured a Triple Crown hopeful; ** post-time favorite